LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – A new study found that Michigan adults were over 30% more likely to be childfree after the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, in which the Supreme Court found that the Constitution does not protect abortion access.

“The Dobbs decision and subsequent uncertainties in Michigan may have resulted in more adults deciding they never want to have children, that is, deciding to be childfree,” the study authors wrote. “Changes in access to reproductive health care created by the Dobbs decision may have unintended consequences for individuals’ decisions whether or not to have children.”

Who conducted the study?

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The study, published in the Plos One journal, defines childfree adults as those who do not have and choose not to have children.

Prior to Dobbs, 21% of Michigan adults were childfree (more than 1.7 million people), compared to 26% after the decision. Study authors called this a “fairly large effect” that suggests causation, rather than simple correlation between the Dobbs decision and the uptick in childfree adults.

This trend in Michigan aligns with a national trend of declining birth rates and declining interest in having children among younger generations. Nearly half of all U.S. non-parents are childfree, according to the study.

What did research find before the Dobbs decision?

A 2021 Pew Research poll—prior to Dobbs—found that 44% of childless adults were not too likely or not at all likely to have children. A majority of those polled said they just didn’t want kids, while others pointed to medical and financial factors, lack of a partner, state of the world, and climate change as reasons for their choice to remain childfree.

Following the Dobbs decision, abortion remained legal in Michigan, despite controversy over a 1931 law that would have banned abortion without rape or incest exception. Though abortion laws in Michigan were effectively unchanged, the Plos One study noted that perceived potential loss of abortions and miscarriage care may have caused some adults to conclude that the risks of having children outweighed the benefits.

“Although Michigan residents retained access to reproductive health care throughout this process … [it] nonetheless introduced significant uncertainty and anxiety around the issue,” the study authors wrote. “These changes in access to reproductive health care represent a societal-level factor that could affect whether Michigan adults want children.”

What’s the reasoning for this decision?

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The study authors suggested several reasons for this increase that linked it to Dobbs, though collecting data on participants’ reasons was not part of the study.

“For women, these restrictions mean both a loss of autonomy regarding reproductive decisions and increased health risks, because certain forms of care would be unavailable or difficult to access,” the authors wrote. “For both men and women, these restrictions may also signal broader trends toward authoritarianism, and therefore toward a world into which they would not want to bring children.”

The authors noted that other potential explanations for the increase, such as the pandemic, inflation, or climate change could not be completely ruled out, but that Dobbs was the most likely explanation.

“Our preliminary analyses and prior research suggest that the prevalence of specific family statuses were stable during the pre-Dobbs period when the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and climate change were already present but reproductive rights were still constitutionally protected,” the authors wrote. “Furthermore, our preliminary analyses also revealed that the prevalence of specific family statuses were stable during the post-Dobbs period, with the changes occurring specifically during the time when the Dobbs decision was issued.”