(Michigan News Source) – The GOP successfully defended two critical House seats in Florida in special elections on Tuesday night but they weren’t able shut down a possible redistricting plan in Wisconsin aimed at flipping control of Congress in the near future.
GOP holds Florida, picks up two more seats in Congress.
In Florida, running for U.S. Congress, Republican Randy Fine clinched victory over Democrat Josh Weil, securing the northern Florida House seat previously held by current National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. Meanwhile, in the Florida Panhandle, GOP candidate Jimmy Patronis defeated Democrat Gay Valimont to take over Matt Gaetz’s former seat.
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Despite the losses, Democrats can still claim a silver lining – narrowing the GOP’s margin of victory in both districts by about half or more compared to 2024. Both candidates ended up winning by about a 14-point margin even though the Democrats were trying to pretend all week that the races were going to be competitive.
Soros-backed candidate flips Wisconsin court blue.
But the real political drama was playing out far to the north in Wisconsin, where Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Brad Schimel, a conservative, lost to liberal Dane County Judge Susan Crawford – backed by funds from George Soros – in what is labeled as a “non-partisan” state Supreme Court race. Crawford won with the help of progressive donors in Wisconsin and across the country. All told, the candidates and outside groups shelled out over $90 million on the race according to Politico and other media outlets.
Crawford’s win tips the scales left.
With 95% estimated as reporting, the election results show that Crawford won her seat easily by about 10 percentage points, cementing the state’s high court with a 4-3 liberal majority, a court that will be deciding important cases on issues like abortion access and union rights. Wisconsin’s high court has also been pointed to as a lynchpin in a high-stakes power struggle over redistricting.
Democrats are hoping a liberal court majority will let them redraw Wisconsin’s congressional map, targeting two Republican House districts for elimination. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D- NY) even visited the state to cheer on the court’s quiet coup attempt.
While the Democrats secured the state Supreme Court seat, the Republicans achieved success with the voter ID amendment. The amendment strengthens existing voter ID laws which require photo ID to vote, by embedding them into the state constitution, making them more resistant to legal challenges. The measure won overwhelmingly with 63.1% support.
What the win means to the Republicans’ House majority.
Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, with a 218-213 edge. Thanks to the wins in Florida, that lead bumps up slightly to 220-213. However, two vacant seats – both in Democrat-leaning districts in Arizona and Texas – are expected to swing blue, which could tighten the count to 220-215. If Wisconsin’s liberal-led court greenlights a redrawn congressional map, the GOP majority could shrink even further – potentially to just 218-215 or even 218-217.
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With margins that tight, Republicans could face an uphill battle to keep the Trump agenda alive. The House is already showing signs of strain – failing a key unity test on Tuesday when nine GOP members joined Democrats to block a rule change that would have banned proxy voting for new parents who are in the U.S. House. The rebellion led to House GOP leaders cancelling votes for the rest of the week. Mike Johnson (R-LA) said in a post on X: “This means we can’t take any further action on President Trump’s agenda this week.” He added, “No SAVE Act. No vote to address rogue judges attacking Trump. No votes to repeal Biden regulations.”
Hanging by a thread.
While the GOP chalked up wins in Florida, the loss in Wisconsin reveals a growing vulnerability: Republicans have the ability to win battles, but they can be outmaneuvered, outspent and out- messaged in races around the country.
Democrats are giddy over finally getting a “win” in something, and they understand that every seat, every judge, and every dollar counts. As the election cycle heats up and 2026 approaches, Republicans hoping to advance Trump’s MAGA agenda must realize that holding the line isn’t the same as gaining ground – and Democrats are playing for keeps.