LANSING, Mich (Michigan News Source) – U.S. Representative John James of Michigan hasn’t thrown his hat into the state’s 2026 governor’s race yet, but according to a new OnMessage Inc. poll, he’s already leaving the rest of the GOP field in the dust. Though James remains undeclared, Republican insiders are already eyeing him as the early frontrunner.
The poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters shows James securing a commanding 54% of the vote. His nearest competitor, former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, trails far behind at a mere 6%. The rest of the field, including other well-known Republicans, are stuck in single digits.
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The survey was conducted by live caller interviews between March 9-11, and the margin of error in the survey is +/- 4.00%.
The poll reveals that 33% of voters remain undecided, leaving some room for movement, but James’ lead is nothing short of dominant at this stage. With 67% of Republicans viewing him favorably statewide – and an even higher 77% favorability among “very conservative” voters – James is positioned as the GOP frontrunner if he decides to run for governor. Like many Republicans across the state, he’s likely weighing whether to run for governor or make a bid for the open Senate seat in 2026. Or maybe he’s happy with his current position and will run for his House seat again in 2026.
Another challenger entering the ring?
Tudor Dixon, a conservative commentator and businesswoman who was the Republican nominee for Michigan governor in 2022 and lost to Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer by ten points, is one of those who are contemplating a 2026 run for either governor again or the U.S. Senate. In her announcement, she praised President Trump for his leadership and expressed her commitment to advancing the America First agenda in Michigan.
A weak field behind him?
There are several Republicans rumored or declared to be eyeing the governor’s mansion, but they are struggling to gain traction. Businessman Kevin Rinke, Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, and former Speaker Tom Leonard all pulled in less than 5% in the OnMessage poll.
State Senator Jonathan Lindsey and political newcomer Anthony Hudson have also failed to make significant waves so far and were not included in the survey by name, which means they were grouped into the “other” category.
Despite James not having formally declared his candidacy, his name ID and favorability among the Republican base put him well ahead of the others. Cox, who previously served as attorney general, has flirted with a comeback but isn’t getting much love from the GOP grassroots yet, who appear to be rallying behind James as their standard-bearer.
Trump effect still strong.
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The survey also confirms that Michigan’s Republican base is firmly in President Donald Trump’s camp. A whopping 88% of likely GOP primary voters hold a favorable view of Trump, suggesting that any candidate looking to win the Republican nomination will need to stay aligned with the president. James has so far threaded that needle carefully, maintaining a close relationship with Trump’s loyal base while broadening his appeal across moderate and business-friendly conservatives.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side…
The Democratic gubernatorial race also has a long list of contenders, though the picture of the frontrunner of the party is also clear at the moment. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the current leader of the pack, pulling 55% in a recent Target Insyght poll. She’s followed by Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist II, Attorney General Dana Nessel (who has yet to formally declare), and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Another name mentioned that could join the democratic candidates is Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel.
Additionally, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running as an independent, turning the general election into a three-way race and adding more intrigue to an already competitive contest.
What’s next?
While many potential Republican candidates, including James himself, haven’t officially declared, the writing on the wall suggests that James could quickly consolidate the GOP base once he jumps into the race. Until then, expect more behind-the-scenes maneuvering as Republicans and Democrats alike jockey for position ahead of the 2026 showdown.
