LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – In a remarkable shift in Michigan’s political landscape, former President Donald Trump clinched a victory in Michigan by a 82,374-vote margin. His campaign targeted a range of key voter groups and outmaneuvered his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, on major issues like inflation and foreign policy, specifically the Israeli/Palestinian war.

A surge among the youth and men.

According to a new report from Mitchell Research & Communications, Trump’s campaign made substantial inroads with younger voters aged 18-29, a demographic that has historically favored Democrats. In 2020, Biden swept this group with a 20-point margin, translating to around 120,000 votes. But by 2024, Trump managed to tie Harris at 49% among young voters, capturing a significant chunk of Democratic support.

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Men, too, turned the tide for Trump. Biden’s 2020 gender gap advantage disappeared, with Trump leading among men by 11%, whereas Harris won women by a slimmer 9%. This gender shift leaned the scales in Trump’s favor and reflected his campaign’s focus on issues resonant with male voters.

The influence of key voter groups.

Trump’s victory also relied on support from distinct voter groups. Exit poll data from the six battleground states shows Catholic voters were pivotal in his Michigan success, with Trump gaining a 10-point increase among Catholics from 2020. Given that Catholics represent about a third of Michigan’s population, this support represented a sizable boost. A big mistake pointed to during the Harris campaign included her decision not to attend the Al Smith dinner in New York right before the election, becoming the first presidential candidate since Walter Mondale in 1984 not to attend the Catholic charity dinner, further alienating her from Catholic voters.

In the suburbs, where Republicans have struggled in recent years, Trump made modest but significant gains. Notably, he improved his margins in Oakland County and Kent County by a total of 35,000 votes compared to 2020, which accounted for a third of his total victory margin in Michigan.

Arab-American voters also contributed to Trump’s win, as many opposed the Biden administration’s stance on the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Dearborn, home to one of the largest Arab-American communities in the country, witnessed a shift from Biden to Trump, yielding a 17,000-vote improvement from President Biden’s past support from the Arab-American community.

Among minorities, the Hispanic vote turnout doubled from three to six percent between 2020 and 2024 for Trump. Additionally, since the 1950s, Republicans have struggled to gain support from the Black community. However, support for Democrats has slightly declined: in 2020, Biden held an 88%-11% lead among Black men and 95%-5% among Black women, while by 2024, Harris, who is half-Black, had her support falling to 86%-13% with men and 91%-9% with women. With Blacks making up 12% of the electorate, this shift benefitted Republicans in Michigan and the rest of the country.

How inflation and foreign policy shaped the race.

Two primary issues dominated the 2024 election: economic pressures and foreign policy. Inflation has hit lower-income voters the hardest, particularly affecting younger voters and minority communities like Blacks and Hispanics. For these groups, Trump’s economic message resonated more strongly, as they struggled with rising living costs.

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The Biden administration’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was also a divisive issue. Arab American communities in Michigan, already vocal in their protests, shifted support away from Harris. Biden’s previous support for Israel and perceived failure to address Arab American concerns drove this demographic shift.

A candidate that connected.

Trump’s “happy warrior” approachability and willingness to engage the public set him apart from Harris. While the Harris campaign attempted to appeal to male voters by using Coach Tim Walz as a campaign figure, the efforts fell short. In contrast, Trump’s appearances – like his memorable McDonald’s stint where he donned an apron and served fries – highlighted his relatability.

The former president’s campaign also made a bold move by appearing on the Joe Rogan Podcast, where he openly addressed any and all questions. This transparency struck a chord with voters who perceived Harris as more guarded, unwilling to address specific questions with direct answers.

Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said, “You win political campaigns by winning individual groups at the margins and by winning the news coverage battle as many days as possible” and Trump was able to do that.

Looking forward.

Michigan’s shift this election season is a testament to how effectively a campaign can leverage economic and cultural issues to capture diverse voter bases. By addressing key issues head-on and embracing an open, personable approach, Trump managed to flip Michigan back to red – solidifying his place in history as the second president to win two non-consecutive terms.