DEARBORN, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – If Michigan’s Arab-American voters were a stock, Democrats would be in full-blown panic selling. In 2020, Joe Biden secured a commanding 82% of the vote in eastern Dearborn, a predominantly Arab-American and Muslim community. Fast forward to 2024, and Kamala Harris managed a paltry 23%, a jaw-dropping 59-point nosedive. Meanwhile, Donald Trump surged to 45%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein made an improbable showing with 30%.

According to the Detroit Free Press, it wasn’t just Dearborn where the tide turned. Across Arab-heavy cities like Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck, and Melvindale, support for Democrats cratered, suggesting the party’s Middle East policy and economic messaging turned voters away in droves.

Middle East policy missteps or something deeper?

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So, what happened? According to many Arab-American voters, the Biden administration’s handling of the Middle East – specifically the ongoing crisis in Gaza – was the final straw for many. Abed Ayoub, of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, minced no words: “It was about the genocide in Gaza, no question,” he said, adding, “Democrats ignored our concerns, ignored our voices.”

Hassan Aoun, of Dearborn echoed his sentiment saying, “They’re sending a message that they’re tired of the Democrat agenda.”

In Dearborn’s south end, where 90% of residents are Arab-American Muslim, Harris received a mere 13% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 88% in 2020. Trump scooped up 55% this time around, and Stein captured 31%. This wasn’t just a small shift; it appears to be an electoral earthquake.

Trump plays peacemaker.

Donald Trump’s campaign capitalized on anti-war messaging during the campaign to woo Arab- American voters. A late-game push included visits to Hamtramck and Dearborn, where Trump rubbed shoulders with local leaders and even received a Yemeni dagger as a sign of respect.

Trump’s promises to bring peace to the Middle East resonated and the outreach worked. In Dearborn Heights, Trump captured 44% of the vote, with Harris trailing at 38%. Even in Hamtramck, a city Biden dominated with 85% in 2020, Harris saw her share fall to 46%, while Trump climbed to 43%.

A one-off or a long-term breakup?

Wayne County might not be just a blip on the radar; it might signal a deeper realignment. Over the past 25 years, Arab-Americans have swung between parties, but this drop in Democratic support feels different to some. “If he (Trump) is successful, and this shift becomes permanent, it will restructure the American party system,” said University of Michigan-Dearborn professor Ron Stockton.

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Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud said about support from his community, “Votes are never promised to any party or candidate, especially from a community directly impacted by a genocide.”

Can Democrats win them back?

It looks like the Democratic Party has some serious fence-mending to do if they want to regain support of Arab-American voters. Whether it’s addressing foreign policy concerns, improving economic outreach, or simply showing up more often, they have a lot of work to do. For now, Michigan’s Arab vote has sent a clear message that they’re not buying what the Democratic Party is selling.