LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – A new exclusive poll from Michigan News Source and Mitchell Research and Communications, Inc. tells the same story that’s been circulating for weeks: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat in Michigan.
However, it’s details that will tell us which candidate ends up winning Michigan’s 15 electoral votes on Nov. 5.
The 8-way and 2-way races.
In an eight-way race, both Trump and Harris are tied at 47%. That’s because there are the major candidates (Democrat and Republican) and minor candidates (Natural Law Party, Green Party, Libertarian, etc.) on Michigan’s ballot. However, in a two-way race between the major candidates, Trump leads Harris by 1%. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4%.
“Although there have been interesting changes in certain crosstabs, the race continues to be where it was two weeks ago, as close as 2 pages in a book,” said Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc.
“Friends and neighbors.”
Polling can reveal more intimate details than one might get in a conversation. That’s why pollsters phrase several questions in a variety of ways to draw out the best data. “In many circles, it is socially unacceptable to be a Trump voter,” Mitchell said. “Pollsters have been attempting to identify those ‘shy’ Trump voters that will not even tell a SurveyMonkey poll that they plan on voting for the former president.”
One of those ways is to ask voters who they think their friends and neighbors support. “When we asked that question on this survey, Trump was leading 45%-35%, a marked difference in the 8-way ballot question from what we saw earlier when we asked them for whom they were voting,” Mitchell said. “Part of the reason for the change is that 9% of the Democrats say that their friends and neighbors are voting for Trump compared to just 1% of Democrats when they are asked directly for whom they are voting.”
In addition, support for Harris dipped 10% for men and women when asked which candidate would get the votes of their friends and neighbors. When asked who they thought would win regardless of voting preference, respondents said Trump by a margin of five percent (41% – 36%).
Gender, age, race, and education.
Demographics tell a story, too. Trump leads with women (48.7% – 47.3) while Harris leads with men (48% – 47.8%). When it comes to young voters, Trump leads by seven percent with 18–29 year-olds (50% – 43%) which is almost identical to his lead with the age group two weeks ago. The opposite is true in the Harris camp; among 30-44 year-olds, Harris led by 12% two weeks ago but is now trailing by 3% (48% – 45%).
An AARP poll released earlier this week that shows Trump is leading among voters 50-years and older nationally.
Trump leads 53% to 43% with white voters, while Harris leads 80% to 18% with African-American voters. College graduates are casting their votes for Harris (54%-38%) and Trump leads among those with no college education (64%-36%).
Michigan’s U.S. Senate race.
In the race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former GOP Congressman Mike Rogers 47%-43%. In a previous Michigan News Source and Mitchell Research and Communications poll, Slotkin led by a similar margin (49%-44%).
In the last month, Rogers has seen an increase in support from Republicans to 88% as well as an increase in support among Independents. Slotkin’s support among Democrats stands at 98%. In addition, Slotkin now trails with Independent voters by seven percent (41% – 34%).
“Throughout this race Slotkin has enjoyed a huge financial advantage over Rogers, essentially, she raised $23.5 million compared to Rogers’ $5.5 million. When you take into consideration GOP candidate Sandy Pensler spent $4 million in negative ads against Rogers in the Republican Primary that means Slotkin has a 5:1 advantage over Rogers.
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