LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – My investigation into the recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, reveals several key factors that appear to be contributing to the presumed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ 12-point lead in Michigan over former President Donald Trump in the race to the White House.

Digging into the Michigan portion of the 4,775 page report of the data, it is clear that survey respondents in the Great Lakes State skewed towards a Democratic candidate right from the beginning even though the data is supposed to be “weighted.”

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A weighted poll is a survey method where responses are adjusted to better represent the target population. This adjustment is supposed to compensate for sampling biases by giving different weights to respondents based on demographic factors like age, gender, race, and income. By correcting for overrepresented or underrepresented groups, weighted polls aim to provide a more accurate reflection of public opinion. This process tries to ensure that the final results closely mirror the true distribution of the population being studied.

Swing state polling.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey was done in seven swing states from July 24th through 28th. In addition to Michigan, they also polled registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Michigan numbers.

The Michigan part of the poll I looked at has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points and lists third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Chase Oliver and “someone else.” Black political activist Colonel West’s name is not on the list as an option so he does not show up in the polling data, although curiously, an organization linked to Democrats in Michigan are trying to keep him off the ballot according to the Detroit News.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey was done with “interviews” online – probably because it contained a whopping 154 questions. Yes, you heard that right. 154 questions! That takes a very dedicated and motivated potential voter, in my opinion, to complete a survey like that – not just your average voter who isn’t paying much attention to what is going on in the political world.

Among the most notable highlights from the Michigan voter demographic survey data were the following key points:

  • 52% women, 48% men
  • 38% Democratic, 35% Republican
  • Democratic women made up the largest chunk of the voters surveyed.
  • Only 706 registered voters were surveyed (0.0084550898203593% of the 8.35 million registered voters in the state)
  • 46% of those surveyed voted for Joe Biden in the last election (vs. 44% for Trump)

The gender voting gap.

Polling more women than men in a survey like this is a big thing in today’s current political environment. NBC News shows a 14- to 16-point lead for Harris over Trump among women voters but Trump beats Harris by as much as 24 points among men. Yes, another poll.

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The Wall Street Journal also recently had an article titled “America’s New Political War Pits Young Men Against Young Women” where they explain “A majority of men under 30 support former President Trump and Republican control of Congress, a sharp reversal from the 2020 race; young women strongly favor Democrats.”

The gender gap isn’t just about a political party or candidates either – it is also about issues like abortion and student loan forgiveness. There’s also a “divorce divide” according to the Survey Center on American Life which reports 56% of divorced men will be voting for Trump vs. 42% of divorced women. Yes, there seems to be a poll for everything these days – but you have to look into the nitty gritty details to see what they are really all about.

More Democrats surveyed.

In the Bloomberg/Morning Consult current survey, 38% voters identified as Democrats, 35% as Republicans, and 27% as Independents. Among them, Democratic women lead the pack at 21%. In the methodology of the Bloomberg/Morning Consult report, it says that the data was “weighted” to approximate a target sample of swing state registered voters based on things like gender, age and race. However, we don’t know exactly what they did to the data.

We also don’t know what area of Michigan these respondents came from either and whether they were from mostly big cities and urban areas or more rural parts of the states. And were they from mostly northern or southern Michigan? What about the east and the west? Those demographics alone could severely impact the results of the polling.

Voter history and opinions: A blast from the past.

According to the survey, 46% of the respondents voted for Biden in 2020 while 44% voted for Trump. Not exactly a landslide victory for either, but enough to give Harris a bump in her direction. Opinions on Harris are mixed, with 31% finding her very favorable and 36% very unfavorable. However, Trump, on the other hand, faces 49% very unfavorable ratings in the state – at least according to the 706 people they asked.

The great polling illusion.

Because of what I define as “skewed” demographics of those surveyed, Bloomberg’s latest poll out of Michigan feels more like a creative writing exercise than a reliable measure of public opinion. Add to that the fact that other polls are widely different from this poll (and show a much closer race) makes this one appear to be an outlier.

With such a small and tilted sample size and demographic juggling, taking Kamala Harris’s 12-point Michigan lead seriously is a bit of a stretch. Yet, in the circus of political polling, messaging and perception often “trumps” reality, pun intended.