LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in the latest Mitchell-MIRS Poll of Michigan. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump garners 49% to Biden’s 47% with 4% undecided.

However, in a five-way race, Trumps lead narrows even further, leading Biden 46% to 45%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West each at 1%.

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Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. says about the results of the polling, “Trump leads in the two-way race because he has solidified the Republican base better than Biden has solidified the Democratic base. Trump is getting 92% of the GOP vote compared to Biden’s 89% of the Democrats. More importantly, Trump is getting 9% of the Democrats while Biden is getting only 4% of the Republicans. Biden is leading with the important group of voters, independents 49% – 43%.”

The poll, conducted entirely via text message with the company SurveyMonkey, weighted data by age, gender, party affiliation, and education to reflect likely voter turnout in November 2024. Conducted from May 20-21, 2024, the poll has a margin of error of ±3.71% at a 95% confidence level.

Compared to a previous survey from March 15-16, 2024, where Trump led by three points in a two- way race and two points in a five-way race, the gap has narrowed.

In the five-way ballot, Trump secures 89% of Republican votes, while Biden claims 85% of Democrats. Trump also pulls 7% of Democratic voters, outpacing Biden’s 4% of Republicans. Among independents, Biden leads 48% to 38%.

Kennedy siphons 4% of Trump’s support and 1% of Biden’s, compared to March when Kennedy drew 3% from each.

Voter enthusiasm for 2024 general election.

Overall voter enthusiasm has declined, with only 56% “very enthusiastic,” down 12 points since March. Another 23% are “somewhat enthusiastic,” 11% “not very,” and 9% “not at all.”

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Republicans show higher enthusiasm, with 70% “very enthusiastic,” compared to 48% of Democrats. 65% of Trump voters are “very enthusiastic” versus 50% of Biden voters.

Demographics in the survey:

In a Trump vs. Biden 2-way race, Biden leads among women (51%-47%); Trump leads among men (52%-43%); Trump leads among 18-44-year-olds (48%-46%) and 45-64-year-olds (49%-46%) while Biden leads among those 65+ (52%-48%). Trump leads among white voters (48%-45%) and non- African Americans (58%-18%); Biden leads among African Americans (74%-14%).

Looking at education, Biden leads among advanced degree holders (63%-22%) and college graduates (57%-31%); Trump leads among those with some college/trade school (52%-38%) and those without college education (56%-23%).

Results from the survey on other Michigan races.

In the generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead Democrats 47% to 44% according the poll.

Additionally, in the U.S. Senate race, Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers 40% to 36%, mirroring Trump’s edge over Biden. Among independents, Slotkin leads 30% to 27%.

Drilling down in the data shows Slotkin leading with women (44%-33%); Rogers leads among men (41%-36%); and Slotkin leading among voters 18-29 (21% lead), 30-44-year-olds (1% lead), and 65+ (7% lead). Rogers is tied with Slotkin with 45-64-year-olds (38%).

Slotkin leads among white voters (39%-38%) and African Americans (68%-13%); Rogers leads among “others” (47%-20%).

Mitchell said about the new polling, “It still looks as though 2024 is going to be a very close election in Michigan. However, there is a huge enthusiasm gap of 15% between Republicans (65% very enthusiastic) and Democrats (50%) and in a close race that Democratic apathy could lead to GOP victory.”