LANSING, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – Michigan and neighboring states should expect less wind and drier conditions for the upcoming winter according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

According to the NOAA Winter Outlook Report, “Drier-than-average conditions are favored in the Great Lakes Region, and from eastern Washington and northeast Oregon into northern Minnesota.” The report went on to say, “The highest probabilities (40-50%) are from the Idaho panhandle east into northwest North Dakota, and from the eastern half of Upper Michigan south into northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.” 

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Jon Gottschalck, Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, shared what this likely means for Michigan. 

“A milder than normal winter is favored for the state of Michigan” Gottschalck said in an email to Michigan New Source. “A 40-50% chance of above normal temperatures is noted for the state as compared to the normal or climatological 33%.” 

This year, Alaska, much of the Atlantic Coast, and much of the Southern states will experience wetter than average conditions, but much of the Midwest during Winter Months will likely have reduced precipitation totals according to Gottschalck. 

“For this Winter (December-January-February 2023-34), there is a 40-50% chance of below normal precipitation across most of Michigan, with the exception of western parts of the Upper Peninsula where there is a 33-40% chance of below normal precipitation,” he said in the email. “The most likely scenario is a deficit of a little more than half an inch (liquid equivalent) for the Lower Peninsula and a deficit of roughly a quarter of an inch (liquid equivalent) for the Upper Peninsula. Significant variations from these “most likely” values are possible.”

Similarly, Michigan is among the states projected to also have higher than average temperatures with between a 40-50% chance of heightened temps this winter from December 2023 until February 2024. 

According to Gottschalck, this year’s prediction is significantly different than last year. 

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“The Winter Outlook issued last year favored above normal precipitation for the entire state of Michigan and colder than normal weather for the Upper Peninsula,” he said in the email. “During last Winter La Nina conditions were observed while El Nino is expected this Winter, contributing to the significant differences seen between the Winter Outlook issued last year relative to the Winter outlook issued this year.”

While milder and drier than normal winter conditions are favored, Gottschalck cautioned Michiganders to prepare for the potential for winter conditions going into the cold season. 

See here for more NOAA predictions for the upcoming winter.