ANN ARBOR, Mich. (Michigan News Source) – An economic forecast from the University of Michigan is predicting a temporary increase in statewide unemployment following the expected UAW strike.

UM’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics released the report on September 1. The model assumes an auto worker strike would last about six weeks, roughly in line with a 2019 strike at General Motors.

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“Obviously, you know, we will see that show up in the jobs numbers, but we don’t expect that to fundamentally alter the trajectory of the state economy,” said UM economist Gabriel Ehrlich, one of three co-authors. “There’s a risk if we had a much more severe strike scenario that the economic fallout would be greater.”

Michigan’s unemployment rate, currently at 3.6% and slightly below the national average, is predicted to rise by half a percent at the start of next year due to below-trend national growth and the auto strike. Despite any “strike-induced wobble,” however, U-M predicts that Michigan’s economy will continue to grow over most of the next three years.

Furthermore, according to the report, Michigan’s labor market has recovered from the pandemic recession one key metric: the number of employed residents.

“We are very encouraged to see the state’s progression in making a full recovery from the severe downturn at the start of the pandemic,” the report’s authors wrote. “At the same time, we are keenly aware that the state economy faces several risks in the near future … We would now characterize our outlook for Michigan’s economy as roughly in line with our outlook for the nation’s.”