LANSING, Mich. (MIRS News) – Common Lansing punditry since the Independent Citizens Redistricting Committee finished its work is that the new district boundaries make picking up a majority for the Democrats easier in the state Senate than in the state House.

Not so fast.

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MIRS asked Target-Insyght’s Ed Sarpolus to analyze the 2018 vote using state Senate and state House district boundaries. The result: Democrats would have won a 59-seat majority in the state House if you presume voters who voted for the Democratic House candidate in 2018 would have voted for the Democratic nominee, regardless of who it was, and the voters who voted for the Republican House candidate in 2018 would have voted for the Republican nominee, regardless.

Target-Insyght took 2018 results by precinct and used the census geography by precinct and reaggregated the results into the newly drawn districts. While if you’re a House Democrat that 59-seat majority might put a smile on your face, Ed Sarpolus, of Target-Insyght, warns the data isn’t all good.

“Before Democrats get too excited, they must look at what would have happened in other past elections,” Sarpolus warned.

While 2018’s vote within today’s districts would have given 59 seats to the D’s, in 2020, they would have only carried 53 seats based on the voting that year. For 2016, Democrats would have won 49 seats and in 2014 Democrats would have carried 51 seats.

“The common pattern, rerunning elections all the way back to 2002, Democrats only win control of the state House if the top-of-ticket wins by a significant margin.”

Democrats winning 59 seats under the new districts based on the 2018 vote is, according to Sarpolus, entirely due to the 9.56% lead that Whitmer had over her 2018 Republican opponent, then Attorney General Bill SCHUETTE.

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House districts that the Target-Insyght analysis indicates the Democrats would have carried in 2018:

House Districts: Won 2018 001, 002, 003, 004, 005, 006, 007, 008, 009, 010, 011, 012, 013, 014, 015, 016, 017, 018, 019, 020, 021, 023, 024, 025, 026, 027, 028, 029, 031, 032, 033, 040, 041, 044, 046, 047, 048, 053, 056, 058, 061, 062, 068, 069, 070, 073, 074, 075, 076, 077, 080, 081, 082, 084, 087, 094, 096, 103.